Tomoya Iju, Muhamad Johan, Satoshi Inoue, Naoyuki Ishiguro, Yuki Asahi, Yuta Mizuno, KD Leka, and Sung-Hong Park

Solar eruptions manifesting as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the explosive liberations of magnetic energy contained in the solar corona. However, the onset mechanism of solar eruptions is not yet clearly explained, although many different models have been proposed so far. In particular, what triggers solar eruptions is an important question for improving the predictability of solar eruptions. Here, we propose a new scheme of prediction of solar eruptions based on the critical condition of eruptive instability in the solar corona, which was recently proposed by Ishiguro and Kusano (2017). Their analysis indicated that a new parameter kappa, which is given by the magnetic twist, provides a critical condition to destabilize the sheared magnetic field. We build a new predictive scheme of solar eruptions using the analysis of magnetic twist and demonstrate how the structure of magnetic twist in solar active regions correlates with the activities of solar eruptions based on the space-born data of several active regions.